Modelling studies are studies that use evidence-based assumptions and statistics to predict what might happen to populations and disease transmission patterns. Given the limited empirical data around mask use and COVID-19 transmission, modelling studies can aid our understanding of the potential effect masks may have on COVID-19 transmission.
Modelling studies have suggested that surgical mask use is likely to be effective in reducing the rate of infection with COVID-19 (Study 1, Study 2, Study 3, Study 4, Study 5) or other respiratory diseases, particularly when combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions like physical distancing and hand hygiene. In one modelling study, even low or moderately effective masks could have substantial impacts on transmission of COVID-19 in some settings. Another study showed that high adherence of surgical mask use (80%) could effectively eliminate an outbreak of influenza. The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation’s COVID-19 transmission model dashboard illustrates how universal mask use may impact COVID-19 outcomes in different settings. Results of models should always be interpreted with caution as results can be sensitive to the model assumptions and parameters. For example, models that predict influenza transmission may not be directly applicable to the current COVID-19 pandemic.
Want to learn more about mask use for interrupting the spread of COVID-19?
- How could wearing a mask reduce COVID-19 transmission?
- What types of masks are there and what are they designed to do?
- What is a N95 respirator and who should use one?
- What is a surgical mask and who should use one?
- What is a fabric mask, who should use one, and how should they be made?
- What should be considered when making fabric masks?
- Hygienic use of fabric face masks
- What is an occupational mask and who should wear one?
- Why doesn’t the WHO recommend that everyone wears face masks in all settings?
- What do we know about the effectiveness of masks to prevent and COVID-19 transmission in community settings?
- How well do masks work under laboratory (experimental) conditions?
- Do homemade masks increase the risk of respiratory disease?
- How might an evolving understanding of virus transmission affect mask recommendations?
- Should hygiene promotion staff wear masks to protect themselves and others?
Editor's note
Author: Jackie Knee
Reviewer: Peter Winch, Julie Watson
Last update: 10.09.2020